CONFIDENCEHigh / Medium / Low describes how reliable the model considers the projection based on the available player data. It is not a prediction of how good the player will be.
SEASON VALUESeason-long fantasy value using projection, availability and confidence
HOW IT WORKS
Projection Methodology
55%2025-26
30%2024-25
15%2023-24
Counting stats are projected from weighted per-minute production and a conservative minutes trend. A small age adjustment is applied. Floor and ceiling are uncertainty bands based on sample depth and recent games played, not guarantees or single-game predictions. The model also adds a separate Season Value for draft research using projected availability and confidence, removes audited duplicate identities, and regresses extreme low-confidence shooting percentages. It does not invent matchup or depth-chart boosts.
Lean Fantasy PPG: PTS + 1.2×REB + 1.5×AST + 3×STL + 3×BLK + 0.5×3PM − TO
Fantasy research note: GP and MPG are now visible because availability and opportunity matter to season-long value. DD/TD are being derived from completed box scores separately; they are not shown here as projected totals until the model can project them honestly.